Quick and cheap last second Oscar predictions

Sorry for lack of posts these last few weeks, readers. I have a lot of half-finished pieces in my drafts that I haven’t quite figured out. More posts coming soon.

Before all that, I’d be remiss not to post some Oscar predictions. I couldn’t find a window today to get to that until now.

Best Picture: The Revenant

Best Director: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant

Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Best Actress: Brie Larson, Room

Best Supporting Actor: Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Best Supporting Actress: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Best Original Screenplay: Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer, Spotlight

Best Adapted Screenplay: Adam McKay and Charles Randolph, The Big Short

Best Animated Feature: Inside Out

Best Foreign Language Film: Son of Saul

Best Documentary Feature: Amy

Best Documentary Short: A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness

Best Live Action Short: Ave Maria

Best Animated Short: World of Tomorrow

Best Original Score: Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight

Best Original Song: “Til it Happens to You”, from The Hunting Ground, Lady Gaga and Diane Warren

Best Sound Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Sound Mixing: Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Production Design: Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Cinematography: The Revenant

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Costume Design: Carol

Best Film Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Visual Effects: The Revenant

 

Oscar nomination predictions

I used to be obsessed with handicapping the Oscars, keeping a steady eye on every major award leading up the nomination announcement, spending hours picking apart all the main categories. Nowadays I pay general attention to the awards circuit (go Mad Max!) but don’t get around to making my predictions until, well, about now. Here are my predictions for the nominees in the major categories, sorted from top to bottom by my estimation of the likelihood of their nomination.

Best Picture

• The Revenant
• Spotlight
• The Big Short
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Martian
• Carol
• Bridge of Spies
• Room
• Creed

As always, the possibility of 5-10 nominees makes this a fun category to predict. The voting rules are a bit complex (a thorough explanation can be found here) but the gist of it is, films that get nominated are those that are (shockingly) ranked first and second on the most ballots. It’s easy to get a sense of which films are generating a lot of passion through the precursors, and the top seven films here have all gotten quite a bit of support. Room is my gut prediction. It’s almost certainly the least-seen film among major contenders, but I have a feeling that it will top a lot of ballots among those who have seen it. And finally, Creed is my annual hopediction. I’d love to see it make the cut, and I think it has more than an outside chance.

Best Director

• Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant
• Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
• George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
• Ridley Scott, The Martian
• Todd Haynes, Carol

The only spoiler here that I can imagine is Adam McKay for The Big Short. But I’m betting the directors’ branch of the Academy goes with Haynes, a respected auteur who has not yet received a directing nomination.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

• Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
• Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
• Matt Damon, The Martian
• Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
• Michael B. Jordan, Creed

Look, I have never been able to be pragmatic about Oscar predictions and I’m not going to start now. I’m not going to include this barrage of solid but mostly one-note contenders and not predict Michael B. Jordan’s tour de force work in Creed. Yes, this means predicting snubs for Bryan Cranston in Trumbo (a movie no one seems to like very much yet that everyone’s predicting for this category) and Steve Carrell in The Big Short (a very good performance that stands a good chance of being dwarfed by the size of the ensemble). So be it. DiCaprio’s winning this thing anyway, so why not be bold?

Best Actress in a Leading Role

• Brie Larson, Room
• Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
• Cate Blanchett, Carol
• Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
• Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

Christ almighty, this is where things are getting messy. Buckle up. Larson, Ronan, and Blanchett are the frontrunners here. They’re safe. After that, we have Vikander, who is being pushed for Supporting Actress. Given that the BAFTAs and Golden Globes both balked and put her in lead, and that she has also been getting awards attention for supporting actress for Ex Machina, I’m predicting that she ends up in lead for this film. Of course, she might end up in supporting for The Danish Girl, or her votes get split every which way and she gets no nominations (a la what happened to Scarlett Johansson in 2003 when she was in almost exactly the same boat with Lost in Translation and The Girl With the Pearl Earring).

Of course, Rooney Mara is also facing some scrutiny about her category placement for Carol (she’s being pushed in Supporting but has gotten some nominations as a lead). I’m predicting her in Supporting, but we’ll see. The last spot comes down to Charlotte Rampling for 45 Years and Jennifer Lawrence for Joy. Rampling’s performance is far more critically adored, but it has been largely ignored by non-critic awards-givers. Critics largely panned Joy, but enough Academy voters rallying behind Lawrence would be far from the most surprising turn of events this year.

Best Supporting Actor

• Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
• Christian Bale, The Big Short
• Sylvester Stallone, Creed
• Jacob Tremblay, Room
• Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

Rylance has quietly become a frontrunner in this category, and should comfortably be nominated alongside Bale and Stallone. Tremblay is another instance of category fraud (he is the protagonist of Room, narrates the movie, and is in almost every scene) but he’s here because everyone seems to forget Quvenzhané Wallis had little trouble being nominated for Lead as a child. I digress; Tremblay gave what was, for my money, the best performance by an actor this year, and I see him riding Larson’s frontrunner momentum to a nod. Idris Elba has been getting a lot of plaudits for Beasts of No Nation, but the film has garnered little other traction since its October release. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the voters opt to recognize someone from the extraordinary cast of Spotlight. Ruffalo is the best bet; he has the showiest character to chew on in a largely understated ensemble.

Best Supporting Actress

• Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
• Rooney Mara, Carol
• Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
• Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
• Kristen Stewart, The Clouds of Sils Maria

Don’t talk to me about this category. Don’t speak. Don’t try. I need to take a break and get a drink to stop my head from spinning.

All right, I’m back. Winslet is the only sure thing here. The only one. Mara? I could easily see voters scoffing at her category placement and putting her in lead, as I predict they will with Vikander for The Danish Girl. Or perhaps Vikander ends up here for The Danish Girl and not Ex Machina. Leigh has gotten consistent support for a movie that has otherwise sputtered on the awards circuit. Stewart has been a critical juggernaut for her performance in The Clouds of Sils Maria, which counts for more in a category as scattered to hell as this one than it does for Rampling. Long story short, there’s a good chance that Winslet, Mara, and Vikander are all nominated tomorrow and I’m still only 1/5 in this category.

That’s it. My brain hurts. I’ll see you all tomorrow morning!

 

The 86th Academy Awards: Surveying the damage

I had my best year ever as prediction percentage goes: 20/24, an astounding .833 batting average. Hall of fame, here I come!

Well, hold up, the Keepers of Clutch Picks say. Did he get the picks that mattered? Did he come through when the pressure was on? Well, let’s see the four I missed.

1. Best Short Film (Live Action)

My pick: Avant que de tout perdre (Just Before Losing Everything)

The winner: Helium

Come on, who doesn’t guess this category? I guarantee you that half the Oscar voters voting in the category don’t really give a damn. It’s not like they’re ignorant about this stuff.

2. Best Documentary Feature

My pick: The Square

The winner: 20 Feet From Stardom

All right, I should have thought about this category more. As I said when I made the predictions, the ceremony was two hours away and I was hungry and wanted to get some dinner. So I rushed this pick and ate some delicious homemade chicken noodle soup. It was really damn good, and worth the tradeoff for not thinking about this category long enough to realize that a movie about backup singers for legendary performers is the stuff Best Picture winners are made of, never mind Best Documentary winners.

3. Best Original Screenplay

My pick: Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell, American Hustle

The winner: Spike Jonze, Her

No more excuses: I thought this one over and made the wrong pick. Her was on stable ground with wins at the Golden Globes and Writer’s Guild Awards.  American Hustle did win the BAFTA, and David O. Russell has been very present at the Oscars in recent years without taking any hardware of his own. He’s worked with pretty much the entire Academy, right? So they’d vote for him this time, right?

On the other hand, he’s the same guy once got into a fistfight with George Clooney over his, Russell’s, treatment of the crew of Three Kings. In that case, perhaps the surprise would be if he ever did win.

4. Best Picture

My pick: Gravity

The winner: 12 Years a Slave

I… just… oy.

How did I screw this one up? Everything was going so well. Yeah, I’d missed a couple, but they were understandable. I had gotten every single Gravity pick right to this point. I’d navigated the uncertain waters of Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay, calling their wins for 12 Years a Slave.

Short answer: I tried to make the bold prediction.

Never, ever try to make the bold prediction and expect it to pay off.

Granted, Gravity winning wouldn’t have been an upset at all. It won seven Oscars, including Best Director. But the consensus leading up to the Oscars was that this category would split with Best Director. It was obvious. With the Oscars, the obvious tends to happen. ‘

And more than that, this was an obvious result I was rooting for! 12 Years a Slave was my favorite film of 2013, with Gravity not far behind. A split would serve both films well, rewarding both Alfonso Cuaron and Steve McQueen for their remarkable achievements.

It was the easy pick.

And yet I scoffed. Picture/Director splits are never this easy to predict, right? Remember when everyone and their grandmas picked The King’s Speech to win Best Picture and The Social Network to win for direction? Remember when the thisclose race for Best Picture between The Departed, Babel, and Little Miss Sunshine ended up being a pretty unsuspenseful win for Best Director winner The Departed?

But I was wrong. This one was that easy to predict. On an Oscar night devoid of surprises, I tried to inject some suspense with this pick. It backfired.

And thus, I will always look at my .833 batting average wondering why it wasn’t .875. I didn’t come through in the clutch, when it mattered most, with the biggest award of them all.

Ah well. There’s always next year.

Other thoughts:

– Alfonso Cuaron is the first Latin American director to win best director, and 12 Years a Slave is the first film by a black director to win Best Picture. Yes, the response to these facts should be “good lord, about damn time Academy”, but seriously: representation in media is important. Hollywood should not pat itself on the back for finally acknowledging non-white filmmakers for once, but breakthroughs are breakthroughs and deserve to be celebrated when they happen.

– Pinoy pride: “Let it Go” co-writer Robert Lopez is Filipino-American, making him the first Pinoy Oscar winner. As a prior recipient of Emmy, Grammy, and Tony Awards, he also became just the twelfth member of EGOT. Here’s a Filipino fist bump, Robert.

– Gravity won seven Oscars while losing out on Best Picture. That’s the most for a Best Picture loser since Star Wars won seven, but lost Best Picture of 1977 to Annie Hall. The record for wins while losing Best Picture belongs to Cabaret, which won 8 Oscars in 1972 but lost Best Picture to The Godfather.

– Gravity is also the second straight film to win the most Oscars while falling short for Best Picture. Last year, Life of Pi topped all winners with four Oscars, including Best Director for Ang Lee. However, it lost Best Picture to Argo.

– This is the second straight year that Best Picture and Best Director have split. The last time this happened in back to back years was 1948 and 1949. In 1948, John Huston won best Director for directing Treasure of the Sierra Madre, while Laurence Olivier’s Hamlet won Best Picture. In 1949, Joseph L. Mankiewicz won the first of his two straight Best Director Oscars for A Letter to Three Wives, while All the Kings Men took Best Picture.

– American Hustle went 0 for 10, joining True Grit, Gangs of New York, The Color Purple and The Turning Point as films to earn double-digit nominations only to leave the Oscars empty handed.

That’s all the trivia I can muster. Good Oscars, everyone. Good night.

Oscar predictions

Seriously, these are tonight?

Wait, 2 hours?

Good lord.

OK then, this is one tradition I can’t abandon, even if I tend not to be very good at these. Here are my crazy rushed Oscar predictions.

Picks in bolded italics

Best Picture

Gravity

12 Years a Slave

Philomena

American Hustle

Her

Nebraska

The Wolf of Wall Street

Dallas Buyers Club

12 Years a Slave has been the frontrunner since its appearance at the Toronto International Film Festival last September, where it won the coveted Audience Award. Since then, however, its footing has never felt secure. This is a pure hunch pick, which pretty much always backfire on me, but so it goes. Cuaron’s directing Oscar for Gravity seems like a sure thing. That alone makes me more confident in its Best Picture chances. Neat and tidy best director/best picture splits pretty much don’t happen when they’re predicted (See, the predicted The Kings Speech/Social Network and The Departed/either Little Miss Sunshine or Babel splits that didn’t happen). I want 12 Years a Slave to win, but I fear that it committed the sin of not giving the Academy what it wants. The Academy likes cathartic films that make you feel good about humanity. 12 Years a Slave is a better film for providing no catharsis, just demonstrative suffering. But that’s not the sort of film that tends to win Best Picture, not with a populist work of impeccable craftsmanship like Gravity in the mix.

Actor

Christian Bale, “American Hustle”

Bruce Dern, “Nebraska”

Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Wolf of Wall Street”

Chiwetel Ejiofor, “12 Years a Slave”

Matthew McConaughey, “Dallas Buyers Club”

I want to pick Ejiofor. If 12 Years a Slave does end up winning best picture without Steve McQueen winning best director, then I cannot fathom how someone could vote for it without voting for Ejiofor. His performance is the film’s heartbeat. But McConaughey has been a force this award’s season, as evidenced by his win in yesterday’s Independent Spirit Awards, which 12 Years a Slave otherwise swept. It’s his to lose.

Actress

Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine”

Sandra Bullock, “Gravity”

Judi Dench, “Philomena”

Amy Adams, “American Hustle”

Meryl Streep, “August: Osage County”

The accusations against Woody Allen by Dylan Farrow are sort of an elephant in the room here. I don’t think it’ll be enough to derail Blanchett, who has been the favorite since the film premiered and has never relinquished that status. Amy Adams might sneak an upset, what with this being her fifth nomination without a win so far. I think Bullock might snare her share of votes from Gravity fans. But Blanchett will likely win out in the end.

Supporting actor

Barkhad Abdi, “Captain Phillips”

Bradley Cooper, “American Hustle”

Michael Fassbender, “12 Years a Slave”

Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club”

Jonah Hill, “Wolf of Wall Street”

Leto and McConaughey have been a joint awards force this year. Leto has won most everything, save the BAFTA where Dallas Buyers Club was surprisingly snubbed completely. Tellingly, Barkhad Abdi won there, and without Leto he’d be the unquestionable favorite for his movie-stealing performance in Captain Phillips. My renegade side wants to predict Abdi, but I can’t if I’m going to be honest with myself.

Supporting actress

Sally Hawkins, “Blue Jasmine”

Jennifer Lawrence, “American Hustle”

Lupita Nyong’o, “12 Years a Slave”

Julia Roberts, “August: Osage County”

June Squibb, “Nebraska”

This is between Nyong’o and Lawrence. Lawrence’s turn is exactly the sort of comedic performance that can and often does win the supporting categories. If she hadn’t won last year, I think she’d be the frontrunner. But I’m not just predicting Nyong’o because she is deserving of this award(and she is very deserving); she also has all the makings of a star that the Academy would likely feel remiss not to recognize now, as her star is rocketing upward. Lawrence’s wins at the Golden Globes and BAFTA give me pause with this prediction, but this is still Nyong’o’s to lose.

Directing

Alfonso Cuarón, “Gravity”

Steve McQueen, “12 Years A Slave”

Alexander Payne, “Nebraska”

David O. Russell, “American Hustle”

Martin Scorsese, “The Wolf of Wall Street”

He has won pretty much everything. Barring a 12 Years a Slave joint Best Picture/Best Director haul (which is more than possible) he’s the runaway favorite.

Writing, adapted screenplay

“Before Midnight”

“Captain Phillips”

“Philomena”

“12 Years a Slave”

“The Wolf of Wall Street”

If 12 Years a Slave wins Best Picture, it’s a lock here. If it doesn’t, it’s still the huge favorite.

Writing, original screenplay

“American Hustle”

“Blue Jasmine”

“Dallas Buyers Club”

“Her”

“Nebraska”

I can’t imagine the Academy letting American Hustle go home emptyhanded. Her is an excellent bet as well, but Hustle has 10 nominations, and this is one where it has any sort of frontrunner potential.

Documentary feature

“The Act of Killing”

“Cutie and the Boxer”

“Dirty Wars”

“The Square”

“20 Feet From Stardom”

The Act of Killing is the critical darling here, which hasn’t always meant much in this category. The Square is timely and relevant to things we see in the day to day news. With no popular documentary to steal the spotlight like Searching for Sugar Man last year, The Square is my bet.

Foreign language film

“The Great Beauty”

“The Hunt”

“The Broken Circle Breakdown”

“The Missing Picture”

“Omar”

Critical darling + precursor success. My notes are going to be short from here on out, by the way, because I need to eat dinner.

Cinematography

“The Grandmaster”

“Gravity”

“Inside Llewyn Davis”

“Nebraska”

“Prisoners”

Lubezki has won every award under the sun for his amazing work here. He gets the award he should have won three times already for The New World, Children of Men, and The Tree of Life.

Animated feature film

“The Croods”

“Despicable Me 2”

“Frozen”

“Ernest & Celestine”

“The Wind Rises”

Disney’s first win in this category will go to the film that might have just kickstarted its next renaissance as a creative and popular force in animated movies.

Costume design

“American Hustle”

“The Grandmaster”

“The Great Gatsby”

“The Invisible Woman”

“12 Years a Slave”

Gaudy and period and Oscar precedent for Catherine Martin. I’m not even writing sentences anymore.

Makeup and hairstyling

“Dallas Buyers Club”

“Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa”

“The Lone Ranger”

Just because I imagine Oscar voters not being able to comprehend giving an Oscar to the other two.

Documentary short subject

“CaveDigger”

“Facing Fear”

“Karma Has No Walls”

“The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life”

“Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hill”

The rule with this category: Predict on the title, based on the amount of suffering or redemption conveyed. Seriously: without the subtitle of Music Saved My Life, I’d be going with Facing Fear, with more confidence than almost any other category.

Music, original score

John Williams, “The Book Thief”

Steven Price, “Gravity”

William Butler and Owen Pallett, “Her”

Alexandre Desplat, “Philomena”

Thomas Newman, “Saving Mr. Banks”

Her is a good bet if the Academy wants to show it has a bit of modernity in its taste, as they did when The Social Network’s dissonant electronic score won here. As it is, Gravity’s score is bombastic and memorable and, more importantly, used well.

Music, original song

“Happy” from “Despicable Me 2”

“Let it Go,” from “Frozen”

“The Moon Song,” from “Her”

“Oridinary Love,” from “Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom”

I dare you to bet against this behemoth of a song that may have single-handedly revived Disney. Yes, that’s probably overstating it, but still: no one song is as memorably tied to the film it’s in as Let it Go (even though I think Happy and The Moon Song are better).

 

Production design

“American Hustle”

“Gravity”

“The Great Gatsby”

“Her”

“12 Years a Slave”

When in doubt, glitz.

 

Short film, animated

“Feral”

“Get a Horse!”

“Mr. Hublot”

“Possessions”

“Room on the Broom”

It’s about a cute, giant robot dog. I refuse to bet against that.

 

Short film, live action

“Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me)”

“Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything)”

“Helium”

“Pitaako Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)”

“The Voorman Problem”

My annual “Close my eyes and click at random” pick.

 

Film Editing

“American Hustle”

“Captain Phillips”

“Dallas Buyers Club”

“Gravity”

“12 Years a Slave”

If Gravity sweeps, it wins here. I’m predicting a Gravity sweep.

 

Sound editing

“All Is Lost”

“Captain Phillips”

“Gravity”

“The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug”

“Lone Survivor”

Gravity sweep.

 

Sound mixing

“Captain Phillips”

“Gravity”

“The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug”

“Inside Llewyn Davis”

“Lone Survivor”

Yep.

 

Visual effects

“Gravity”

“The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug”

“The Lone Ranger”

“Iron Man 3”

“Star Trek Into Darkness”

If Gravity bombs tonight, it still wins here. If it sweeps and doesn’t win here, then I just give up and promise to never subject you to my attempts at predicting these godforsaken awards again.

Quick and dirty Oscar Nomination predictions

These are in 7 hours, aren’t they? Damn.

All right, so I’ve been a bit behind in my tracking the races this year, but I’m going to give this my best shot.

Best Picture

12 Years a Slave

American Hustle

Gravity

Captain Phillips

Her

Wolf of Wall Street

Nebraska

Inside Llewyn Davis

 

Gah, this category should be easy with the expanded field, no? But the whole “there could be anywhere from 5-10 nominees” thing makes this trickier. That the Academy was kind enough to mention that under current rules, there never would have been a 10-nominee year helps a little. Considering that there have been nine nominees the last two years (with the current rules) at least helps us gauge that 9 seems to be the high end. That said, I’m looking at 8 nominees this year. The first three are the only real locks, with Captain Phillips close behind. My one caveat with Captain Phillips is that it seems like the sort of film that garners lots of admiration without much fervent love. Being ranked first on ballots is the single biggest factor to getting nominated, and even a small group of passionate fans can carry a movie a long way (as The Tree of Life and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close can attest).

Her is just that sort of film, and while I’d be wary about it in a 5-nominee year, I think it’s going to make the cut with the potential for more than 5. The last three movies are all films I’d write off as long shots in a 5-nominee race, but that I think will garner the first-place votes needed to make the cut. There are contenders other than these eight, and if the Academy had stuck with 10 guaranteed nominees like it experimented with briefly, I’d slot in Dallas Buyers Club and two of The Butler, August: Osage County or Saving Mr. Banks. But as is, DBC‘s performances seem to be the main source of its buzz, and August has been too underwhelmingly recieved. I’m worried that I’m underestimating Saving Mr. Banks and The Butler and I considered sliding one or the other as a 9th place finisher, but I’m predicting 8 nominees and I’m not going to cop out now.

Best Director

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave

David O’Russell, American Hustle

Spike Jonze, Her

Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

 

Top three seem pretty secure to me, with Cuaron as the tentative favorite in the category (although I’m always, always wary about a Best Director favorite whose film is not the favorite to win Best Picture, but that’s a story for next month). McQueen is about as much a lock for a nod. American Hustle should do very well across the board, so there’s no reason not to expect O’Russell to join the party. After that, if Her is the screenplay favorite and a best picture contender, I’m comfortable putting Jonze in here. But I’m a bit tentative about he and Scorsese, and I consider them both to be a coin flip with Paul Greengrass for Captain Phillips.

Best Actor

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer’s Club

Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips

Bruce Dern, Nebraska

Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis

The top three are pretty solid. Bruce Dern is just about there as well. After that, well, I was pulling my hair about between Leonardo Di Caprio for Wolf of Wall Street, Forrest Whitaker for The Butler and Robert Redford for All is Lost. Then, naturally, I used this spot for my annual attempt at a surprise prediction (it’s only worked once, when I predicted Fernando Meirelles’s nomination for directing City of God ten years ago, but traditions are traditions). But seriously, I think people are underestimating Isaac’s chances. It’s one of the most admired performances of the year in a film that most voters will be considering strongly in other categories. Only Ejiofor has won more critics awards in this category. Don’t be shocked if he makes it.

Best Actress

Sandra Bullock, Gravity

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Judi Dench, Philomena

Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

 

These are the five clear favorites. Amy Adams might nudge Streep, I think, but I’m not going to bet on it. That’s really all there is to it for now. Blanchett is the favorite to win, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Bullock pulls ahead down the road. We’ll see then.

All right, I’m pretty tired now and need to sleep early to get to the nominations, so here are the rest of my predix without analysis. Sorry about that.

Best Supporting Actor

Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club

Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips

Daniel Bruhl, Rush

Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave

Bradley Cooper, American Hustle

 

Best Supporting Actress

Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

June Squibb, Nebraska

Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

Oprah Winfrey, The Butler

 

Best Animated Feature (Because I care about this one inordinately)

Frozen

Monsters University

The Wind Rises

Despicable Me 2

Ernest and Celine

 

Best Cinematography (Because I also care about this one inordinately)

Gravity

12 Years a Slave

Inside Llewyn Davis

Prisoners

The Grandmaster

Quick and dirty Oscar Predictions. Short as hell explanations.

Best Picture

Beasts of the Southern Wild
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Lincoln
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Amour
Django Unchained
Argo

Precursor dominance outweighs lack of a directing nod.

Best Director
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Michael Haneke, Amour
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

“Lincoln’s” the biggest Best Picture contender listed here.

Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Denzel Washington, Flight
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

He’s been the favorite since he was cast.

Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Shades of Marion Cotillard’s 2007  upset over the perceived two-woman race of Ellen Page and Julie Christie.

Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Alan Arkin, Argo
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Toughest race to call. Most “leading” nominee+ BAFTA and Golden Globe for Waltz bodes well.

Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Amy Adams, The Master

Lots of predictions calling this for Field. I’m not sensing any momentum shift away from the Hathaway train, however.

Best Animated Feature Film
Frankenweenie
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck-It Ralph
ParaNorman
Brave

Just the right combo of critical support, box-office success, and general support of the masses.

Original Screenplay

Flight, John Gatins
Zero Dark Thirty, Mark Boal
Django Unchained, Quentin Tarantino
Amour, Michael Haneke
Moonrise Kingdom, Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola

This category is often used as a consolation award for a Best Picture loser. Obviously, that could also mean Haneke and Boal.

Adapted Screenplay
Beasts of the Southern Wild, Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin
Argo, Chris Terrio
Lincoln, Tony Kushner
Silver Linings Playbook, David O. Russell
Life of Pi, David Magee

If Argo wins best picture, the Academy will likely look for another major category to pair its reward with (in lieu of its lack of a directing nod).

Best Foreign-Language Film
Amour (Austria)
No (Chile)
War Witch (Canada)
A Royal Affair (Den)
Kontiki (Norway)

Best Picture nominees don’t tend to lose here.

Original Score
Anna Karenina, Dario Marianelli
Argo, Alexandre Desplat
Life of Pi, Mychael Danna
Lincoln, John Williams
Skyfall, Thomas Newman

Newman and Williams could easily win, but Danna’s score is the lushest and most memorably paired with the scenery. That goes a long way.

Original Song
“Before My Time,” J. Ralph; Chasing Ice
“Pi’s Lullaby,” Mychael Danna & Bombay Jayashri; Life of Pi
“Suddenly,” Claude-Michel Schönberg, Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boulil; Les Misérables
“Everybody Needs a Best Friend,” Walter Murphy & Seth McFarlane; Ted
“Skyfall,” Adele Adkins & Paul Epworth; Skyfall

I can’t imagine the Academy letting slip the chance to get on the Adele awards train. I imagine she has a wing to her house devoted to storing them by now.

Achievement in Production Design

Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln

This category tends to reward spectacle. I imagine Lincoln or Les Mis could take it as well, but few scenes this year were as visually splendid as the meerkat island in “Life of Pi:”.

Achievement in Cinematography
Anna Karenina, Seamus McGarvey
Django Unchained, Robert Richardson
Life of Pi, Claudio Miranda
Lincoln, Janusz Kaminski
Skyfall, Roger Deakins

A rock-solid slate of nominees, which ensures that I won’t rip my hair out over the winner (I’ll never quite forgive “Avatar” winning this award). I’d love for Deakins to win for both his remarkable career and his gorgeous work in “Skyfall”, but this award also tends to go to the most obviously luxe film. “Life of Pi” it is.

Achievement in Costume Design
Anna Karenina, Jacqueline Durran
Les Misérables, Paco Delgado
Lincoln, Joanna Johnston
Mirror Mirror, Eiko Ishioka
Snow White and the Huntsman, Colleen Atwood

When in doubt, go with a period film. When three period films are listed, go with the one with the most Keira Knightley.

Best Documentary Feature

5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching for Sugar Man

Tough to call this category this year. “Searching for Sugar Man” is the biggest crowd-pleaser of the bunch. Keeping an eye on “How to Survive a Plague”, though.

Best Documentary Short Subject

Inocente
Kings Point
Mondays at Racine
Open Heart
Redemption

I’ve had more success with this category over the years than any other. It’s also the only category I pick based purely on the titles. Go figure.

Achievement in Film Editing
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Zero Dark Thirty really should win this, but again, the whole “Argo’s gonna win Best Picture without a director or acting win to go with it” thing is gonna rear its head again. Unless the Oscar goes to Arkin, which I doubt happens.

Achievement in Makeup & Hairstyling
Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Misérables

Dwarf noses!
Best Animated Short Film
Adam and Dog
Fresh Guacamole
Head Over Heels
Maggie Simpson in “The Longest Daycare”
Paperman

This category tends to reward labors of love by singular artists, which might explain why Disney and Pixar rarely win despite some quality offerings in the last decade. They get to have their fun in the feature category, while the perceived little guys have their turn in the spotlight here.
Best Live-Action Short Film

Asad
Buzkashi Boys
Curfew
Death of a Shadow
Henry

I watched the trailers for these. “Henry” felt right. I’m tired, guys. I need to finish these up and go to sleep.

Achievement in Sound Editing
Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

My friend in the Army told me that this was the first movie he’d seen that made gunfire sound right. That’s got to count for something. I mean, that’s more a sound mixing thing, but who in the hell in the Academy knows the difference in how to judge these categories?
Achievement in Sound Mixing

Argo
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

HEY DID YOU HEAR THAT THIS MOVIE WAS ALL RECORDED LIVE LIKE FOR REAL THAT ENHANCES IT IN SO MANY WAYS BECAUSE NOW EVERYONE SOUNDS LIKE THEY”RE SINGING IN THE SHOWER INSTEAD OF SOUNDING GOOD (I don’t remember writing any of that, but it seems true to my heart and therefore it stays)

Achievement in Visual Effects

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Marvel’s The Avengers
Prometheus
Snow White and the Huntsman

TIGER FRIEND!

That’s all, folks. See you on the other side, when I hope to not embarrass myself with my picks for once!

Revised, last second Oscar predictions!

The BAFTA nods came out today. Also, I made some dumb picks last night because it was late and I get stupid late. So, my last second, revised predix before the nominations are announced in five hours, with some extra categories thrown in for fun:

Best Picture 
Argo
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook
Django Unchained
Moonrise Kingdom
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Master

Best Director
Ben Affleck, Argo
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master

Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Denzel Washington, Flight
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Best Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Sally Field, Lincoln
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Helen Hunt, The Sessions

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, Argo
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained

Best Original Screenplay
Amour
Django Unchained
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Adapted Screenplay
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook

Best Art Direction
Anna Karenina
Cloud Atlas
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Best Animated Feature
Brave
Frankenweenie
The Painting
Paranorman
Wreck-it-Ralph

Best Cinematography
Django Unchained
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Documentary Feature
Bully
How to Survive a Plague
The Imposter
Searching for Sugar Man
This is Not a Film

Best Costume Design
Anna Karenina
Djanho Unchained
Les Miserables
Lincoln
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Best Foreign Language Film
Amour
The Deep
The Intouchables
Sister
War Witch

Best Original Score
Anna Karenina
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty

Oscar Nomination predictions!

Damn it! The Oscar nominations are tomorrow!! Two weeks early!

Well, I forge ahead. Time for my favorite annual game: predicting nominees in the Oscars’ major categories.

Best Picture 

Argo
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook
Django Unchained
Moonrise Kingdom
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Master

The top five are more or less sure things. They’d be my likely five in a pre-2011 voting system. They were my top five before the Directors Guild nominated their directors earlier today. Those five have owned the precursors thus far, and their favorable DGA nominations only further their status as the category’s sure things.

Silver Linings Playbook and Django Unchained, the former a precursor monster and the latter a critical and popular smash with Oscar pedigree and potential for a wide swath of nominations, would be giving me fits right now in a five-nominee year. I’d have them at a coin flip with Les Miserables and Life of Pi. As it is, I’m more than comfortable predicting both for a nomination.

Now, I could end things there and predict those as the Academy’s final lineup. However,  it’s important to remember that, in addition to the potential for 10 nominees, the nominations use preferential balloting. Long story short, being ranked as a voter’s favorite film of the year counts for a lot, and enough voters ranking a film number-one can do a lot to counter a lack of widespread support. With the expanded field, passion counts more than ever. Consider the Best Picture nomination for The Tree of Life last year after its total shutout from both the guilds and the Golden Globes. While its support base wasn’t broad, those who loved it tended to love it. That meant lots of top spots on Oscar ballots (a key component in preferential balloting) and a best picture nomination.

Beasts of the Southern Wild fits that mold better than any other film this year. It wasn’t widely seen, but those who love it have been particularly vocal about it. Its Oscar buzz has been hard to call otherwise. It was shut out at the Golden Globes (not a surprise, given their lust for star power, especially in the Drama category) and was ineligible for several Guild awards (including the SAG and WGA). However, its nomination by the Producer’s Guild makes me significantly more confident in its chances.

Moonrise Kingdom is similar in that regard, and has had more precursor support than Beasts (Golden Globe and WGA nominations). It gets in, with room to spare.

That leaves me with nine nominees, the same as last year. However, there are still some possibilities:

A blockbuster could earn the last slot, a la District 9 and The Blind Side in 2010. Skyfall is the most likely possibility here, given its overwhelmingly positive reviews, massive box-office haul and Oscar pedigree (American Beauty Oscar-winner Sam Mendes directing, 9-time nominee Roger Deakins on cinematography, juicy roles for previous winners Javier Bardem and Judy Dench). The Dark Knight Rises would seem to be a logical choice here, since The Dark Knight’s Oscar snub was widely cited as the reason for an expanded Best Picture field in the first place. However, its critical response was milder than the hosannas aimed at that one, and as a blockbuster, it wasn’t the dominant film of the summer the way its predecessor was. That honor for 2012 went to The Avengers, a film that has generated no Oscar buzz at all, which sadly isn’t shocking given that there was no way the Academy would deem it “serious” enough.

In the end, Skyfall will likely suffer for the same reason that Beasts of the Southern Wild and Moonrise Kingdom will succeed: it’s the kind of film that earns critical accolades but doesn’t end up on many “10 best” lists. I’d love to see it get recognized, but I don’t think it’s going to pull the number-one votes it’s going to need.

However, the most divisive film of the year, The Master, is exactly that sort of movie. While I’m wary about predicting a full slate of ten, I can’t shake the idea that The Master will pull the kind of the support that will leave more obviously Oscar bait and less divisive, but also less adored, films like Flight and The Impossible out of the running.

Best Director

Ben Affleck, Argo
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master

One thing I miss about the not-so-old 5-nominee Best Picture category: predicting the Academy’s annual Best Director wild card. Most years, the fact that only the Director’s branch of the Academy votes for the nominees in this category would lead to a director getting recognized, but his film being snubbed for Best Picture. Often, the wild card would be a respected figure whose film was just too unconventional for the Academy. David Lynch, for example, was nominated for best director for two films (Blue Velvet in 1986 and Mulholland Drive in 2001) that did not earn a single other nomination. Many legendary foreign directors (Pedro Almodovar, Krzystzof Kieslowski, Francois Truffaut, Akira Kurosawa, Ingmar Bergman, Michelangelo Antonioni) have received recognition here for films not nominated for best picture. Many other American and English auteurs have been nominated here as well for Best Picture snubbed films.

Other outliers fit that trend of acclaimed films that didn’t jibe with the Academy’s less esoteric taste for Best Picture. Just looking at the 2000s, examples include Lynch, Almodovar for Talk to Her, Fernando Meirelles for City of God, Mike Leigh for Vera Drake, Julian Schnabel for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, and Paul Greengrass for United 93.

However, the expanded Best Picture field has greatly reduced the odds of this phenomenon, which had previously been a near guarantee (there was at least one Best Director wild card in 42 of the previous 45 Oscars before the field expanded). Even last year, many prognosticators picked Terence Malick to pull a Best Director nod for The Tree of Life, with the film missing out for Best Picture. However, the film mustered nods in both categories.

This year, I’m floating that possibility again. Remember, the Directors branch of the Academy does the nominating here. For one, that means the DGA nominations have some weight, since there is some crossover with the membership. These predictions line up with the DGA picks, with one exception: I swapped out Tom Hooper for Les Miserables with Paul Thomas Anderson for The Master. Why? The aforementioned Auteur Exception. It was an Academy Awards staple for decades. Even if The Master is snubbed for Best Picture, I think Anderson will keep the tradition alive.

Other possibilities who could bite me in the ass on nomination morning: David O’Russell for Silver Linings Playbook, Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained, Michael Haneke for Amour (this one is really giving me second thoughts, actually).

Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible

What a brutal category to predict this year. Chastain and Lawrence are locks, with ample precursor support for Best Picture contending films. After that it’s a free-for-all. In addition to my three picks, very strong cases can be made for Marion Cotillard for Rust and Bone, Rachel Weisz for The Deep Blue Sea, and Helen Mirren for Hitchcock. Mirren seems like a likely nominee, given her Golden Globe and SAG nods. However, Hitchcock has been an awards season dud otherwise, a clear-cut case of Oscar bait that failed to gain traction in any other categories. Watts, also a GG and SAG nominee, seems more likely than Mirren, given the more recent release of her film, and the fact that it has been pinning its Oscar hopes on her from the get-go. If one gauged Oscar-season momentum, Hitchcock’s would be flailing, while The Impossible would be riding steady.

So, why predict Riva and Wallis, despite their comparative lack of precursor support? Well, it’s that nagging “passion principle” that I brought up back in the Best Picture discussion up there. Riva and Wallis earned raves like few other performances this year. Riva’s film is a critical darling from an acclaimed director, and is exactly the kind of performance that snags a nod seemingly at the last second, thanks to good timing and intense support from those who have seen the film. Wallis’s film, meanwhile, came out in the Summer, and she has not yet left the conversation despite her chances being hampered by the SAG’s ruling the film ineligible. I just can’t fathom Beasts earning a Best Picture nomination without the little actress who is absolutely integral to its success also being recognized.

A nomination for Mirren would just seem so damn obligatory compared to these two. Perhaps I’m being wishful, but there you go.

Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Denzel Washington, Flight
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

The first four here seem pretty strong. All have ample buzz and precursor combos, and are unlikely to be bumped from their perches. The fifth slot is more difficult. Phoenix is doing battle with Bradley Cooper for Silver Linings Playbook, with an outside chance for Richard Gere for Arbitrage. While Cooper seems like a safer bet, he’d be an Academy newcomer with a comedy pedigree, something that I don’t think stacks up well for him against Phoenix, a two-time nominee with a more obviously challenging role. Gere, meanwhile, earned some of the best reviews of his career for Arbitrage, but I imagine he’ll have to settle for them. The Academy doesn’t care for nominating characters who are blatantly dickish, no matter how strong the performance is.

Best Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Sally Field, Lincoln
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Amy Adams, The Master

Damn it, I’m getting tired. Gonna blitz through this: Hathaway’s the frontrunner, Field’s got solid, baity role in a film with a chance of dominating these awards, Dame Maggie is Dame Maggie and riding the Downton Abbey feel-good train, Kidman has been campaigning like crazy for The Paperboy and is GG and SAG nominated, and Amy Adams is gonna be nominated for like 872 Supporting Actress Oscars in her career and will never win one. Also, maybe Helen Hunt.

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, Argo
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook.

Arkin and Jones are my safe picks. Hoffman seems likely (SAG and GG nods, general acclaim for his performance). The Golden Globes nominated both DiCaprio and Waltz. The SAG nominated neither, substituting Javier Bardem for Skyfall and Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook. I’m splitting the difference. Matthew McConaughey’s abs might also earn a nod for Magic Mike.

Eye on the Oscars: “Zero Dark Thirty” wins The New York Film Critics and the National Board of Review awards

Two days ago, The New York Film Critics Circle got a head start on the awards season this year, giving its Best Picture prize to “Zero Dark Thirty”, Oscar-winner Kathryn Bigelow’s upcoming account of the mission to kill Osama Bin Laden. Today, the National Board of Review awards concurred. What does this mean for the Oscar picture? Well, let’s look.

The New York Film Critics Circle consists of 35 Gotham-based critics, and is arguably the most influential critics award, along with the Los Angeles Film Critics Association. It’s not the most predictive of eventual Best Picture Oscar winners, but it’s an excellent gauge for potential nominees. Of the 77 NYFCC winners before “Zero Dark Thirty”, 69 went on to become Best Picture Nominees, and 29 went on to win (including last year’s Best Picture winner, “The Artist”). Of the eight winners that failed to score Best Picture nods, six (“Day For Night”, “Amarcord”, “The Player”, “Leaving Las Vegas”, “Mulholland Drive”, and “United 93”) earned Best Director nods. The two outliers to score neither Picture nor Director nods (1999’s “Topsy-Turvy” and 2002’s “Far From Heaven”) still earned screenplay nods and four total nominations apiece.

Long story short, winning the NYFCC award puts you on the Academy’s radar, and you tend to stay there.

The National Board of Review tends to get derided in serious film circles, with its lax membership standards and requirements for voting. Their annual top 10 lists can include some real head-scratchers, films that end up gaining zero awards season traction (“J. Edgar”, “The Ides of March”, “The Bucket List”, “The Kite Runner”). However, in more recent years their number one picks tend to at least score Best Picture nominations. Their last to fail to do so was a real oddball of a winner, 2000’s “Quills” (which did end up scoring Geoffrey Rush a Best Actor nod). Since then, every one of their winners has ended up getting a Best Picture nod.

So, it’s been a good showing early on for “Zero Dark Thirty”. It should be interesting to see how audiences react to it, and if it turns into the Best Picture frontrunner. Remember, Bigelow’s “The Hurt Locker” won Best Picture despite being a summer release that grossed just $12 million domestically. “The Hurt Locker” also did well in the critics awards, taking both the NYFCC and the Los Angeles Critics Association.

Remember, though, that we are still at the beginning of the Awards season. “The Social Network” looked like an unstoppable Juggernaut at the start of its awards season, but its momentum faded as the months progressed, and “The King’s Speech” rode a groundswell of box office success and Guild support to Oscar victory. We’re only starting the climb up the roller coaster.

Full Oscar predictions

Here are all my Oscar predictions, with comments for the categories I posted last night.

Note: I changed my costume pick to Anonymous, after realizing that it both won the costume guild award, and after remembering  that being set during the Renaissance is even better for this category than 19th century England.

Best Picture

The Artist

The Descendants

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

The Help

Hugo

Midnight in Paris

Moneyball

The Tree of Life

War Horse

The Artist has been a juggernaut this awards season. I loved it, personally, but I can also understand the puzzlement many in the media have showed over the awards dominance of a silent, French slapstick comedy. I think Mark Harris of Grantland is onto something: if The Artist wins Best Picture, it’s as much a statement about the lackluster crop of American films this year as it is a celebration of a movie that just doesn’t fit the Academy’s favored profile.

That said, I’ll be more than happy when it takes home the trophy tonight. My favorite film in the category, The Tree of Life, doesn’t have a chance, so I’m fairly ambivalent anyway, and The Artist is much better than several films to have won in in the last decade and change.

Best Director

Martin Scorsese, Hugo

Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris

Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist

Alexander Payne, The Descendants

There’s a splinter sentiment that Scorsese will win here, his reputation and Hugo’s big nominations haul leading to something of an upset. However, last year taught me a valuable lesson in this category. I joined everyone else who predicted that David Fincher would win the directing Oscar for The Social Network while The King’s Speech would take Best Picture. When the latter won both, I looked back through Oscar history and realized that Picture/Director splits only happen in a crazy, unpredictable fashion.

The last time it happened, for example, was when Crash stunned Best Director winner Ang Lee’s Brokeback Mountain and won Best Picture, maybe the most controversial Oscar win in history. Before that, Roman Polanski won for directing The Pianist as part of that film’s out-of-nowhere three Oscar haul (the most shocking of which was Adrien Brody’s well-deserved win for Best Actor) as it nearly toppled mega-favorite Chicago, which ended up winning Best Picture anyway.

Before that, there was the crazy race of 2000, when Gladiator prevailed in Best Picture, but was upset by Traffic’s Steven Soderbergh for Best Director. Lest we forget, Ang Lee was also among the favorites that year as well, winning the DGA for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon.

Pretty much every single Picture/Director split in the last 40-odd years involved either a huge upset, usually for Best Picture (Shakespeare in Love, Driving Miss Daisy, Chariots of Fire) or a very tight race between two heavyweights (The Godfather and Cabaret  in 1972, In the Heat of the Night  and The Graduate in 1968). The Artist has been a huge favorite all awards season, and has shown no signs of weakness. If it loses here or in Picture, it’ll be an upset.

Best Actor

Demian Bichir, A Better Life

George Clooney, The Descendants

Jean Dujardin, The Artist

Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Brad Pitt, Moneyball

It’s been interesting watching Dujardin emerge as a front-runner in a category that features two of Hollywood’s biggest stars in their most critically acclaimed roles yet. He’s definitely earning novelty points for the silent-factor in his performance. Many see this is a bad thing. I don’t particularly. Every performance must be judged within its particular context, and judging Dujardin against Pitt and Clooney strictly on dramatic heft isn’t fair.

Regardless, he’s probably going to win here (whether or not history remembers this win fondly is another story), although I’m guarded about a Pitt or Clooney upset.

Best Actress

Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs

Viola Davis, The Help

Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady

Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn

Viola Davis has emerged as something of desperation favorite, someone to give the award to instead of having to choose between one of two stars in mediocre biopics that were pretty clearly made for the sole purpose of winning Oscars. Make no mistake, Streep (and to a lesser extent, Williams) can’t be counted out here. But Davis has much more sentiment on her side right now, and there’s a sense that the voters don’t want to give Streep, possibly our best living actress, her third Oscar for a piece of Oscar-bait that no one really liked.

Best Supporting Actor

Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn

Jonah Hill, Moneyball

Nick Nolte, Warrior

Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

It’s been heart-warming for me to see Plummer emerge as the clear front-runner for this award, which would be his first. He’s delightful and heartbreaking in Beginners, which is a film that I didn’t expect to see on the awards circuit this year. If he loses, it’d be a monumental upset.

Best Supporting Actress

Berenice Bejo, The Artist

Jessica Chastain, The Help

Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids

Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs

Octavia Spencer, The Help

Spencer has dominated the pre-cursors, and there’s a general warm and fuzzy feeling about her winning. She’s a hardworking veteran, who has long made the most of whatever screen time she could get (I’ll forever remember her as the crowbar lady in the elevator in Being John Malkovich). She’s a lock here.

Best Original Score

The Adventures of Tintin (John Williams)

The Artist (Ludovic Bource)

Hugo (Howard Shore)

Alberto Iglasias (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)

War Horse (John Williams)

The Social Network’s win here last year indicated that the Academy was weighing the cinematic importance and memorability of the score as much as its level of heartstring-tugging. In that case, I can’t imagine a film whose only sound for 95% of the run-time is music losing here.

Best Song (what the hell happened to this category this year?)

“Man or Muppet?” from The Muppets

“Real in Rio” from Rio

I don’t even know. Seriously, what gives, Academy? Two nominees? Fix this category’s nominating process, or get rid of it. But nominating two blah songs and calling it a day is embarrassing.

Adapted Screenplay

The Descendants (Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, and Jim Rash)

Hugo (John Logan)

The Ides of March (George Clooney, Grant Heslov, and Beau Willmon)

Moneyball (Stephen Zallian, Aaron Sorkin, and Stan Chervin)

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (Bridget O’Connor and Peter Straughan)

Original Screenplay

The Artist (Michel Hazanavicius)

Bridesmaids (Annie Mumolo and Kristen Wiig)

Margin Call (J.C. Chandor)

Midnight in Paris (Woody Allen)

A Separation (Asghar Farhadi)

Animated Feature

A Cat in Paris

Chico & Rita

Kung Fu Panda 2

Puss in Boots

Rango

Documentary Feature

Hell and Back Again

If a Tree Falls Short: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front

Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory

Pina

Undefeated

Foreign Language Film

Bullhead (Belgium)

Monsieur Lazhar (Canada)

A Separation (Iran)

Footnote (Israel)

In Darkness (Poland)

Film Editing

The Artist

The Descendants

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Hugo

Moneyball

Sound Mixing

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Hugo

Moneyball

Transformers: Dark Side of the Moon

War Horse

Sound Editing

Drive

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Hugo

Transformers: Dark Side of the Moon

War Horse

Visual Effects

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Hugo

Real Steel

Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Documentary Short

The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement

God is the Bigger Elvis

Incident in New Baghdad

Saving Face

The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom

Short Film (Live Action)

Pentecost

Raju

The Shore

Time Freak

Tuba Atlantic

Animated Short 

Dimanche/Sunday

The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore

La Luna

A Morning Stroll

Wild Life

Art Direction

The Artist

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Hugo

Midnight in Paris

War Horse

Costume Design

Anonymous

The Artist

Hugo

Jane Eyre

W.E.

Cinematography

The Artist

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Hugo

The Tree of Life

War Horse

Makeup

Albert Nobbs

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

The Iron Lady